US Department of Energy · 2007

Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use

Edward Parson, Virginia Burkett, Karen Fisher-Vanden, David Keith, Linda Mearns

A scenario is a description of potential future conditions produced to inform decision-making under uncertainty. Scenarios can help inform decisions that involve high stakes and poorly characterized uncertainty, which may thwart other, conventional forms of analysis or decision support. Originally developed to study military and security problems, scenarios are now widely used for strategic planning and assessment in businesses and other organizations, and increasingly to inform planning, analysis, and decision making for environmental issues, including climate change.

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